Analytical Evaluation of the Life Cycle Cost of Repairable Products with a Bayesian Failure Model and the Exponential Quality Parameter

This research focuses on modeling the Life Cycle Cost (LCC) of products under warranty, with a particular emphasis on the role of quality. In conventional LCC models, the impacts of quality on warranty costs, failures, and repairs are often incorporated in no accurate and quantitative manner; those models primarily focus only on the relationship between quality and reliability. To address this gap, the present study develops an integrated analytical model in which the quality function is defined as the product of a posterior distribution-based function and an exponential decrease function. The combination of these two components allows for the more precise modeling of uncertainty in operational data and the nonlinear effects of quality on warranty costs. According to the model analysis and a numerical study, the proposed framework yields a more realistic estimate of life cycle cost and significantly highlights the importance of investing in initial quality to reduce long-term warranty costs.