Assessing and predicting the challenges and uncertainties of rice cultivation due to climate change effects in Toyama Prefecture, Japan

Climate change and global warming are altering weather patterns, threatening crop productivity. The resultant impact can be food insecurity. Japan's rice farms are in a precarious situation due to a multifaceted crisis driven by climate change. Utilizing remote sensing and the MaxEnt predictive modeling approach to identify declining rice fields can significantly enhance agricultural potential and provide a pertinent solution for integrated, place-based sustainable management in the regions. This technique suggests the likely abandonment of rice fields owing to climate change by identifying the principal factors contributing. The research aims to explore rice cultivation's scenarios, challenges, and uncertainties to bring policy-relevant place-based solutions for food security in Himi city, Toyama prefecture, Japan. The land-use and land-cover analysis shows that rice fields have decreased by 20.01 km² from 2000 to 2025 in Himi city. The results indicate that autumn and summer precipitation, along with mean minimum winter temperature, are the primary environmental factors influencing the potential abandonment distribution of rice fields, accounting for a cumulative contribution of > 63%. Rice fields are expected to decline northwestward, from 46.178km² to 26.17km². High probability for declined regions of rice field is predicted from > 3km² to > 7km². This decrease in rice fields and probable future decrease present potential risks for rice cultivation in the Himi city. Future efforts for mitigating the effects of climate change on rice planting adaptation should include sowing period changes, cultivar innovation, and rationalized application of fertilizer. These adaptable solutions are critical for advancing rural revitalization initiatives and promoting the integrated advancement of sustainable socio-environmental and agricultural development. This multi-disciplinary research seeks to contribute to Target 13 (climate action) of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and SDG 2, which aims to eradicate hunger, achieve food security, improve nutrition, and promote sustainable agriculture.