Geopolitics of Gas Export: A Game Theory Analysis of Iran-Russia Strategic Interaction in the European Market

Today, development and the continuation of life depend on securing energy. Energy supply is realized through various carriers such as oil, gas, their derived products, and renewable energies. Iran, holding 16 % of the world’s gas reserves, ranks second after Russia. Under these circumstances, Iran has the opportunity to enter international markets. Europe is considered one of the largest destinations for Iranian gas exports via pipeline. This study investigates the effect of the 2007– 2008 economic crisis and the recent changes in the global energy market due to the Russia-Ukraine war on the non-cooperative game between Iran and Russia in short-term and long-term periods across four scenarios, using a Game Theory approach to calculate the Nash Equilibrium. Based on the results obtained, the High Export Rate (HER) strategy was chosen in all scenarios by both countries, except Russia in Scenario 1 (short-term period), where the Low Export Rate (LER) strategy emerged.