Mapping Uncertain Trajectory: Prospects and Challenges of China's Green Energy Investment in ASEAN

China’s deepening ties with Southeast Asia have become central to regional economic relations amid geopolitical turbulence. Yet, its role in the energy sector is paradoxical—acting both as a driver of renewable energy (RE) and a source of socio-environmental challenges. This paper examines Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) in ASEAN’s green energy from 2013 to 2024, highlighting a major transformation. China has emerged as the leading green investor, particularly in Indonesia, Vietnam, and Laos. A turning point came after President Xi Jinping’s 2021 pledge to halt overseas coal financing, which redirected investment toward RE. By 2024, renewables accounted for over 60% of China’s regional energy portfolio. Despite this progress, two obstacles persist. The captive coal loophole permits coal plants for industrial parks, locking in carbon emissions. Additionally, weak governance and policy instability in host countries often undermine the transition to clean energy. The scale of investment flows also depends heavily on ASEAN states’ commitments. The study concludes that China remains a crucial yet problematic catalyst for the region’s energy transition, with sustainability hinging on closing policy gaps and strengthening governance. JEL classifications: F63, F64