Dynamic transformation toward resilient and circular food systems: A decision support framework for food security

The overarching goal of this paper is to support the governance of sustainable transformation pathways for resilient and sustainable food systems, ensuring food security. The rationale for developing a dynamic decision support system is the growing debate over the necessity of (re-)regionalization policies in food supply chains that incorporate circularity and resilience strategies. This paper explores the trade-offs and synergies between decisions made at the strategic, tactical, and operational levels, global and local food systems, climate mitigation and adaptation strategies, as well as sustainability and profitability/technology, while evaluating the strategic combinations of various macroeconomic, socio-technical, and political measures. To achieve this ubiquitous goal, we use a mixed-methods approach, combining quantitative and qualitative analysis through interviews and a holistic System Dynamics (SD) model to simulate the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) as narratives. The simulation quantifies the SSPs to find a balanced transformation pathway for a resilient and sustainable food system, depending on global trade policies, transport and logistics, economic development, consumption patterns, and technological development. This holistic approach to food systems at various levels is unique and provides a clear decision-support framework that assess measures and their combinations into a set of strategies.