Climate-driven diversity patterns and range dynamics of Maclura (Moraceae) worldwide

The genus Maclura (Moraceae), the most widespread and only spiny genus in its family, includes trees, shrubs, and lianas, many with significant medicinal value. However, systematic studies on its global diversity patterns and responses to future climate sce-narios are still lacking. This study analyzed global diversity patterns using species oc-currence data in Geographic Information System (GIS) software. Stepwise regression in R identified environmental drivers, and Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modeling pre-dicted current and future suitable habitats. The aim was to elucidate the distribution drivers and predict habitat shifts under climate change. Results show: (1) Maclura has an intercontinental disjunct distribution, concentrated in South America, southern North America, southwestern Europe, and southeastern Asia, with the latter being the richness center and southern North America the endemism center. (2) Diversity is primarily influenced by temperature, solar radiation, water vapor pressure, and soil cation exchange capacity. (3) Current suitable habitats focus on South America, southeastern Asia, and central Africa; future climate scenarios project overall reduction in suitable area. (4) The present distribution centroid is in Ethiopia, Africa, shifting westward and increasingly northwestward under intensified climate forcing. This re-veals Maclura 's global distribution drivers, providing a scientific basis for conserving its germplasm diversity and enabling sustainable use.