Modeling the potential distribution and key environmental drivers of Aristobia reticulator (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) under climate change using MaxEnt

Aristobia reticulator is a destructive wood-boring pest that infests tropical and subtropical crops, posing a serious threat to various economic tree species throughout southern China. Accurate prediction of future dynamics in the suitable habitat of A. reticulator under climate change is essential prior to the implementation of science-based control strategies. This study utilized 55 occurrence records and 16 environmental variables to optimize the MaxEnt model via the Kuenm package, obtaining the optimal parameter combination (RM = 1.3, FC = LT). It predicted the beetle’s current and future (2050s and 2070s) potential ranges under three climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) in China. The study identified key environmental factors influencing its distribution and analyzed changes in suitable habitat area and centroid migration trajectories under different scenarios. Results indicated that the minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio6) was the dominant environmental factor limiting its distribution. Compared to current conditions, the suitable habitat area was projected to significantly expand under the medium-high emission scenario (SSP3-7.0) and high emission scenario (SSP5-8.5), with the center of gravity generally shifting toward higher latitudes. These findings establish a scientific basis for early-warning systems and regional management strategies addressing the potential distribution expansion of A. reticulator .