Trading for Conservation: Leveraging Artificial Intelligence to understand impacts of the wildlife trade convention on Arctic Conservation

The Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) plays a pivotal role in regulating global wildlife trade, yet its effectiveness in the rapidly changing Arctic remains poorly understood. Using the Arctic Tracker, an integrated assessment platform combining CITES trade records, conservation status data, and catch statistics, this paper evaluates protection effectiveness for 43 Arctic species spanning five decades. This study shows that while around one-third of species display stable or improving populations under CITES protection, most continue to decline due to climate change, habitat degradation, and limited enforcement capacity. Despite overall reductions in legal trade volumes, illegal and unreported trade persists, undermining conservation gains. The Arctic Tracker enhances the transparency and reproducibility of CITES performance assessments, providing a scalable model for evaluating multilateral environmental agreements. These findings highlight the need for integrated approaches that couple trade regulation with climate adaptation and habitat protection to safeguard Arctic biodiversity.