From oceans to forests, biodiversity powers climate-regulating services

Biodiversity loss threatens the ecosystem services on which humanity depends, yet the functional forms and context-dependency of biodiversity-ecosystem service relationships remain poorly quantified. Here, we analyse an unprecedentedly large biodiversity-ecosystem service compilation, comprising 423 studies, to determine how biodiversity affects ecosystem service delivery. We show that regulating services such as water quality and pollination often exhibit linear relationships, suggesting an additive role for diversity. While biodiversity enhances most services, our effect-size analysis shows that oceanic ‘blue carbon’ sequestration is exceptionally sensitive, revealing how critical marine biodiversity is for climate mitigation. Conversely, services like hazard regulation appear relatively insensitive to biodiversity, instead depending on a few functionally unique foundational species whose persistence nonetheless is interdependent on the wider community. Our new synthesis enables the forecasting of impacts and highlights how ecosystem services might be used to address future problems ahead of time. For instance, we forecast that biodiversity loss will reduce food security in countries experiencing population growth and intensive development, due to a loss of natural protection from pests. Our findings provide the largest global synthesis of BES relationships to date, offering a novel quantitative framework that integrates empirical synthesis with predictive modelling and provides mechanistic insight and actionable guidance.