A Data-Driven Governance Framework for the Cultivated Land Dilemma: Balancing Intensification and Fragmentation in the Yangtze River Delta, China

Cultivated land in rapidly urbanizing regions supports food production and ecological integrity, yet policies often present intensification and fragmentation as a zero-sum choice. This study examines 27 cities in the Yangtze River Delta from 2000 to 2023 and links a robust evaluation of intensification and fragmentation with a coordination assessment and a driver analysis based on spatial detection and interpretable machine learning. Findings show that intensification first rose and then declined, with higher levels at the periphery and lower levels in the interior. Levels are higher in southern Anhui and Zhejiang and lower in northern Jiangsu and northern Zhejiang. Fragmentation followed a fluctuating path with repeated rises and falls and shows a clear gradient that is higher in the south and lower in the north, with peaks in southern Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Anhui. The two dimensions are moving into early coordination, but pronounced spatial disparities remain. Coordination is generally higher in the west, imbalance persists in the northeast, the center is relatively stable, and the south shows a structure with lower values at the core and higher values at the periphery. Industrial structure and road network density are the core drivers of the interaction between intensification and fragmentation, and urbanization and population density reinforce their effects. Building on these results, a multilevel governance architecture and a four-quadrant policy toolkit match regional interaction types with targeted interventions such as service-based consolidation, institutional innovations, and infrastructure upgrades. This data informed governance framework offers a transferable pathway for managing cultivated land systems under rapid urbanization while advancing equitable and sustainable land governance.