Coupling Coordination and Driving Mechanisms of Land Use and Ecosystem Service Value in the Central Yunnan Urban Agglomeration

ABSTRACT Research Content: This study focuses on the Central Yunnan Urban Agglomeration, analyzing the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics, coupling coordination relationship, and driving mechanisms of land use and ecosystem service value (ESV) from 2010 to 2024. It aims to provide a scientific basis for regional territorial spatial optimization and ecological civilization construction. Research Methods: Based on multi-temporal land use data, the study comprehensively employs methods including land use transfer matrix, dynamic degree and comprehensive intensity quantification, ESV equivalent factor assessment, coupling coordination degree model, trend surface model, and geographical detector. Key findings include:(1) The overall land use structure remained stable, with ecological land (forest, grassland, and water bodies) dominating. However, construction land continued to expand, primarily at the expense of cultivated land and a small amount of forest land, reflecting the squeezing effect of urbanization on ecological space. (2) The total ESV increased significantly, rising from 1.194 billion yuan in 2010 to 2.288 billion yuan in 2024, with regulating services contributing the most. The spatial distribution of ESV exhibited a pattern of “higher in the south and lower in the north, higher in the west and lower in the east,” with high-value areas distributed along a northeast–southwest corridor. (3) The coupling coordination degree between land use and ESV steadily improved, with most regions transitioning from “uncoordinated” to “coordinated.” However, coordination levels remained relatively low in core urbanized areas such as Kunming, revealing the ongoing tension between intensive human activities and ecological function maintenance.(4) The driving mechanisms showed dynamic evolution: early stages were dominated by natural factors such as NDVI and slope; after 2020, the explanatory power of socio-economic factors like GDP significantly increased; by 2024, a multi-factor synergistic driving pattern had formed, integrating natural constraints (e.g., slope) and human factors (economy, population). Nonlinear interactive enhancement effects were observed among factors. (5) This study reveals a regional development phenomenon in the Central Yunnan Urban Agglomeration where construction land expansion coexists with an increase in total ESV. This phenomenon partly stems from the substantial growth of ecological land (especially water bodies) and their high ESV coefficients achieved through major project interventions. However, it also warns that relying solely on expanding a single land type to boost ESV may entail long-term ecological risks. This highlights the necessity and complexity of achieving a balance between ecological benefits and socio-economic development through refined spatial management during urbanization. (6) The study systematically elucidates the evolution of regional human–land relationships from “natural background dominance” to “natural–socio economic synergy.” It provides empirical evidence for understanding the interaction between land use and ecosystem services at the urban agglomeration scale and offers reference value for promoting regional sustainable development.