Assessing economic value of carbon storage and land use changes based on coupled PLUS-InVEST model in Hexi Region

Situated within a unique “mountain-oasis-desert” ecological framework, Hexi region has undergone substantial shifts in land use, reshaping both its ecological integrity and socio-economic fabric. Understanding the economic implications of such changes, particularly in relation to carbon storage, holds critical value not only for guiding emission reductions and enhancing local incomes, but also for informing effective ecological compensation mechanisms. This research adopts Hexi region as a representative area, utilizing land use data from 2000 to 2020 in addition to the coupled Patch-generating Land Use Simulation with Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (PLUS-InVEST) models integrated modeling approach to simulate land use and carbon storage dynamics under four distinct development pathways by 2030. To assess the cost-equivalent value derived from carbon storage in various land use types, this study applied compound interest models-specifically the present and future value formulas to determine monetary gains over time. Key outcomes are: (1) Over the period of 2000 to 2020, meadow and unutilized land continued to dominate Hexi region’s landscape, together comprising more than 90% of the total area. Over the same period, cultivated land expanded by 1,963.56 km ² , water bodies grew by 448.75 km ² , and construction land increased by 666.88 km ² . In contrast, woodland, meadow, and unutilized land saw reductions of 17.92 km ² , 338.11 km ² , and 2,722.97 km ² , respectively. (2) Total carbon storage increased by 2.1 million tons, showing a spatial gradient from higher levels in the southeast to lower in the northwest, with the ecological protection scenario in 2030 offering the most significant storage gains. (3) The economic valuation of carbon storage rose by 12.78 billion yuan from 2000 to 2020, and is projected to continue growing by 2030, with the highest value growth under the ecological protection scenario, followed by sustainable development, cultivated land protection, and natural development scenarios.