Multi-Scenario Land Use Change and Its Effects on Ecosystem Service Value and Ecological Compensation in the Middle Yangtze River

Land use and land cover change(LULC)have a large impact on ecosystem service values (ESV), but traditional valuation methods tend to ignore economic differences in crops over time. By integrating high-resolution land-use data (2000–2020), the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model, and spatial econometric techniques, we projected land-use dynamics for 2030 under four alternative scenarios: Business-as-Usual (BAU), Economic Development Priority (EDP), Ecological Protection Priority (EPP), and Ecological-Economic Balance (EEB). A novel slope-adaptive ESV assessment framework—validated with high accuracy (Ove Accuracy = 0.95;Kappa = 0.91)—was developed to address topographic heterogeneity in ESV estimation. Under the EDP scenario, built-up land expands by 5.52%, critically low-ESV areas increase by 476.83 km² (a 2.7-fold rise from 2010–2020), and a net ESV loss of 1.04% is observed. In contrast, EPP reduces urban land by 10.19% through active restoration, significantly curbing ESV degradation. High-value ESV zones are concentrated in water bodies and forests, which dominate regional regulating services. The Middle Yangtze River Urban Agglomeration (MYRUA) illustrates the conflict between urbanization and ESV. Using high-resolution land-use data (2000–2020), the PLUS model, and spatial econometrics, we projected 2030 land-use under four scenarios. The results can more accurately assess social, economic and environmental factors, providing a new solution approach for formulating differentiated ecological environment protection policies in the MYRUA and solving key technical problems in large-scale ecological functional area land use planning.