Predicting Potential Habitats of the Endangered Suweon Treefrog (Dryophytes suweonensis) under Climate Change Scenarios Using an Ensemble Ecological Niche Model

Amphibians are among the most threatened vertebrates, and the endangered Suweon treefrog ( Dryophytes suweonensis ), endemic to lowland rice paddies in South Korea, is particularly vulnerable to habitat loss and climate change. This study identifies environmental factors influencing the species' occurrence and projects its potential habitat under current and future climate conditions. Using occurrence data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, literature, and field surveys, we developed an ensemble ecological niche model combining Random Forest and MaxEnt. The model showed high predictive performance (mean AUROC = 0.956), with agricultural land area as the most important factor, followed by precipitation and elevation. Causal Forest and Ridge regression revealed that winter precipitation positively influenced occurrence, while excessive rainfall during breeding reduced habitat suitability. Projections under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios indicated significant habitat loss by 2050 and 2080, especially under high-emission scenarios (SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5). Suitable habitats were predicted to remain only in limited lowland areas of Gyeonggi-do and Chungcheongnam-do. These findings emphasize the species’ dependence on rice-paddy ecosystems and highlight the need for proactive conservation strategies, such as wetland creation, hydrological management, and climate-adaptive planning, to ensure its survival.