Cumulative Exposure to Climate Shocks, Local Vulnerabilities and Herder-Farmer Conflicts in Africa

In sub-Saharan Africa, climate shocks such as extreme temperatures and heavy rainfall events are becoming increasingly frequent, exacerbating existing tensions between farmers and herders. Yet, the existing literature rarely considers the combined effect of prolonged exposure to these shocks and local vulnerabilities stemming from environmental and sociocultural factors. This paper investigates how cumulative exposure to temperature anomalies (1997--2015) interacts with local vulnerabilities to influence the risk of violent conflict between farmers and herders at a fine geographical scale (approximately 55 km $\times$ 55 km). Using statistical models that account for both fixed effects and dynamic spatial relationships, we show that in areas characterized by high land pressure and ethnic heterogeneity, each additional month of excessive temperature increases the likelihood of conflict by 0.6 to 0.7 percentage points---an increase of roughly 8\% relative to the baseline risk. Conflicts also exhibit strong temporal persistence and substantial spatial contagion toward neighboring regions. These findings highlight the need for targeted policies that reduce land-use pressure and strengthen local conflict-prevention and resolution mechanisms to mitigate the detrimental impacts of climate shocks.