Future Changes in Seasonal Sea-Level Variability Could Reshape Coastal Ecosystems

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Abstract

Future changes in seasonal sea-level variability may significantly reshape inundation patterns in intertidal zones. Using a conceptual model, we show that even modest increases in the range of the annual sea-level cycle can substantially shift the frequency and duration of inundation and emergence, amplifying environmental stress and potentially triggering ecological transitions. Changing seasonal sea-level dynamics must therefore be considered alongside annual mean sea-level rise to assess coastal ecosystem resilience.

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