Niche modelling of Azadirachta indica under current and future climate scenarios of Punjab, Pakistan

In recognition of Azadirachta indica great economic and therapeutic value, the natural population of This plant species should be propagated extensively to meet its increasing demand for medicinal and other applications. The most effective strategy for the preservation and restoration of this valuable plant species is the identification and selection of ecologically suitable habitats under changing climatic conditions. The present research suggests possible Azadirachta indica -friendly locations in Pakistan. The maximum entropy model, MaxEnt programme is employed in this study to pinpoint the places that are particularly suitable for neem. The model's accurateness was indicated by its Area Under Curve of 0.942. The geographical spread of Azadirachta indica was considerably influenced by the seasonality of precipitation, precipitation in the wettest month, and maximum temperature in the warmest month. Considering RCP (4.5 plus 8.5) for the years 2050 using 19 bioclimatic factors and 173 occurrence locations, future acceptable habitats for A. indica were determined. A. indica now has a very appropriate area of around 290,144 km2 (33%) and an unsuitable area of about 585,892 km2 (67%). The region that is appropriate for A. indica in the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate change regime is 301,748 km2 and 291,226 km2, respectively. The extreme suitability increases about 3% in future climate change scenarios. A. indica's present habitats that are suitable are the areas of Salt Range, the central region of Punjab (Faisalabad, Nankana sahib, Lahore, Bahawalpur and Okara), Thal, Hyderabad, Sukkar, Mirpur areas of Sindh. The exceptionally favorable area for A. indica was predicted to increase under possible future climate scenario. The study would be important for the advancement of A. indica management and conservation strategies in future.