Deconstructing the Rise in Residential CO2 Emissions in Türkiye: An LMDI Analysis for Net-Zero Policy

Residential buildings in Türkiye contribute significantly to national CO₂ emissions, primarily due to inefficient heating systems and growing urban demand. Despite policy commitments to net-zero targets by 2053, the sector lacks granular analysis of the social and structural drivers behind these emissions. Existing studies often overlook direct emissions and fail to provide actionable insights for targeted mitigation. To address this gap, this study applies a decomposition approach to identify key factors influencing residential heating emissions in Türkiye between 2012 and 2022, with a specific focus on analyzing the main drivers of direct CO₂ emissions from residential buildings, particularly those related to space heating. The conceptual framework of this study is anchored in the index decomposition approach, with the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) serving as the specific analytical technique employed for the 2012–2022 time span. The parameters are population, household number, household size, floor area, direct energy consumption for heating purposes and emitted CO ₂ emissions from residential buildings. Emissions increased from 31.99 Mt CO ₂ in 2012 to 47.46 Mt CO ₂ in 2022 with highest negative effect from floor area per capita. The results indicate significant fluctuations in CO ₂ emissions from 2012 to 2022, driven by changes in household numbers (+10.2 Mt CO ₂ ), household size (-5.8 Mt CO ₂ ), floor area per capita (+10.1 Mt CO ₂ ), energy consumption per floor area (+4.1 Mt CO ₂ ) and carbon intensity (-3.0 Mt CO ₂ ). The research underscores the importance of energy efficiency measures, updated building insulation standards, hi-tech energy equipment in dwellings, district heating systems, and waste heat recovery in reducing energy consumption and emissions. These findings provide a robust foundation for targeted policy interventions to achieve Türkiye's net zero emissions goals by 2053. As a recommendation for future studies, a regional decomposition analysis can be useful to develop region-specific and local strategies.