Interview Offer Thresholds and Match Success: Optimizing Signal Strategy in the Integrated Plastic Surgery Match

Purpose We analyzed plastic surgery applicants in the Texas Seeking Transparency In Application to Residency (STAR) database (2021-24) to assess how number of interview offers (NIO) relates to match outcomes and how this may affect signaling strategy. Methods Multivariable logistic regression compared NIO with other objective factors such as Step scores, and regression models were fit for NIO vs. match probability. Otolaryngology and dermatology were comparison groups. Results Median NIO was 12 ± 9.5, and NIO significantly predicted matching (p < 0.01) and ~ 90% match was predicted at ~ 27 NIO. Applicants with less than 12 NIO had significantly lower match rates (60.4%) than those with 12–27 NIO (82.9%) or greater than 27 NIO (88.5%) (p < 0.01). In the < 12 NIO group, no predictors distinguished matched from unmatched applicants. Otolaryngology applicants had 90% match chance at 26 NIO and 13 for dermatology. Conclusions Our findings suggest increasing plastic surgery signals to 25–30 may promote thoughtful applications while maintaining strong match outcomes.