Impact of Antiretroviral Therapy for the Prevention of Mother-to-Child Transmission of HIV on New HIV Infections among Children in Nigeria: A Longitudinal Study; 2010–2023

Background: Mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) of HIV remains a significant public health concern, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. Prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) programs, such as the provision of antiretroviral therapy to pregnant women living with HIV, has significantly contributed to the reduction of MTCT rates. Early infant diagnosis (EID) plays an important role in identifying HIV-positive infants and children early, enabling timely initiation of treatment and care. This longitudinal study evaluates the effectiveness of antiretroviral therapy (ART) administered to pregnant women in preventing mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) of HIV, focusing on the incidence of new HIV infections among children aged 0–14 years in Nigeria from 2010 to 2023. Methods: Data were sourced from UNAIDS datasets. Pearson correlation analysis was used to assess the relationship between Coverage of Pregnant women who receive ART for PMTCT and new HIV infection among children. Poisson regression was performed to examine the association between ART coverage and MTCT rates. Results: Correlation analysis showed a negative but non-significant relationship between ART coverage and MTCT rates (r = -0.499, p = 0.070). The negative trend suggests that increased ART for PMTCT may contribute to fewer new HIV infections among children. However, Poisson regression revealed a statistically significant negative association (p < 0.001). This indicates that, while the bivariate correlation was not conclusive, regression modeling provided stronger evidence of an association, highlighting the explanatory power of regression in this context Conclusion: The study demonstrates a positive impact of increased ART coverage for PMTCT of HIV in reducing new HIV infections among children in Nigeria. Strengthening PMTCT programs, addressing barriers to service uptake, and improving data quality are crucial for optimizing the impact of PMTCT interventions and eliminating pediatric HIV.