Analysis of Precipitation and Temperature Trends in the Gomti River Basin, India (1980-2023)

This study examined long-term trends in precipitation and temperature in the Gomti River Basin of northern India from 1980 to 2023, using gridded climate data. Mann-Kendall tests and Sen's slope estimators were applied to analyse trends at annual, seasonal and monthly scales. The results showed a statistically significant decreasing trend in annual precipitation (-2.52 mm/year) and monsoon rainfall (-0.169 mm/year). At the district level, Ayodhya, Sitapur, and Unnao exhibited significant declines in annual rainfall. Pre-monsoon rainfall increased slightly in some of the central districts. For temperature, a marginally increasing trend was observed in the annual mean temperature (0.008°C/year), with the most pronounced warming during the monsoon season (0.014°C/year). Monthly analysis revealed significant precipitation decreases in June-July and increases in October-November, indicating a shift in seasonal rainfall patterns. The findings highlight changes in the basin's hydroclimatic regime, with implications for water resources and agricultural practices. This analysis provides insights to support climate adaptation planning in the region.