Spatial Assessment of Climate Risk in the Algerian Steppe Based on Long-Term Trends in Temperature and Precipitation (1951–2022)

This study aims to assess spatial climate risk levels in the Algerian steppe by analyzing long-term trends in temperature and precipitation between 1951 and 2022. Using the CRU TS dataset at a 0.5° × 0.5° resolution, Sen’s slope was applied to detect annual trends at each grid cell. Statistically significant trends were classified using percentile thresholds, and a 3×3 matrix was used to combine temperature and precipitation trend categories to derive five levels of climate risk, following the IPCC framework. Results reveal a generalized increase in temperature across the region, with the most pronounced warming occurring in the southern and eastern steppe areas, including Djelfa, M’Sila, Batna, and Tébessa. Precipitation trends are more spatially variable, with statistically significant declines concentrated in the northwestern steppe (e.g., Naâma and El Bayadh), while larger but non-significant decreases affect southern and eastern zones. The combined risk map identifies Biskra, Batna, and western Khenchela as the most exposed areas due to overlapping warming and drying trends. This spatially explicit approach provides a robust basis for climate risk assessment in arid ecosystems and offers valuable insights for targeted adaptation planning and land management in Algeria’s steppe regions.