Assessing Climate Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity in Jharkhand, India: A Multi-Source Data Approach for Inclusive Adaptation and Resilience Planning

Socioeconomically disadvantaged groups are at serious risk from climate change, especially in areas with ecological fragility and structural inequality. A disaggregated, data-integrated strategy is necessary to evaluate climate risk in Jharkhand, India, due to overlapping vulnerabilities. The socio-spatial complexity of climate vulnerability has not been sufficiently evaluated in the majority of prior research, despite its crucial importance for creating focused adaptation plans that can successfully mitigate climate-related hazards. In this work, Earth observation data and microdata from the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5) are combined to provide a district-level assessment of climate vulnerability in Jharkhand. According to the conceptual model outlined in the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), vulnerability is understood here as the interaction of three basic elements: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. The ERA5, MODIS, NFHS-5, and Census datasets were used to compile 31 variables to examine the vulnerability. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was used to create a Climate Vulnerability Index, validated through the Equal Weighting Method (EWM), and the results were further examined by social groups. Results show spatial variation in urban-industrial districts like Dhanbad and Bokaro show evidence of resilience, while the tribal dominated districts of West Singhbhum, Khunti, Gumla, and Latehar demonstrate very high levels of vulnerability regarding climate change impacts. Scheduled Tribes (ST) were the most vulnerable social group, highlighting how structural marginalization shapes adaptive capacity and resilience against climate vulnerability. This study offers methodological innovation by integrating unit-level microdata from the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5) and geospatial data to assess vulnerability and provide policy-relevant ideas for localized and socially inclusive adaptation and disaster risk reduction actions aligned with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).