Geospatial Assessment of Infrastructure and Climate Interactions on Poverty Resilience Along BRI Corridors in Tanzania

Large-scale infrastructure projects like China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) are promoted as catalysts for economic development, yet their interaction with climate risks and ultimate impact on poverty resilience remains poorly understood at a granular, spatial level. This study addresses this critical gap by developing a reproducible geospatial framework that integrates high-resolution Earth Observation (EO) data with spatial econometrics to analyze the direct and spillover effects of infrastructure on socioeconomic outcomes under climatic stress. A Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) integrates two decades of satellite-derived vegetation health (NDVI), economic activity (nighttime lights), and gridded climate records across Tanzanian BRI corridors. The analysis reveals that the poverty-reducing effect of infrastructure is fundamentally contingent on local ecosystem stability, with a 14.2% reduction in poverty observed exclusively in zones with stable NDVI trends. This effect is amplified by significant spatial spillovers, which indirectly reduce poverty by 15% within a 50km radius. A key finding shows a 1°C temperature increase correlates with a $2.30 average per capita income decline, underscoring the climate vulnerability of development gains. Crucially, the findings demonstrate that a conventional development approach would require a 240% increase in investment to achieve outcomes equivalent to a climate-adapted design. This research establishes a transferable paradigm for leveraging open-source EO data within economic and development geography, providing robust evidence to guide resilient infrastructure policy and ensure sustainable development outcomes in a climate-stressed world.