Prioritizing Extreme Climate Indices for Grain Production Risk Monitoring in Arid Agroecosystems: Evidence from Xinjiang, China

In line with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), specifically SDG 2 (Zero Hunger) and SDG 13 (Climate Action), this study examines the impacts of extreme climate change on grain production in the key agricultural region of northwest China. Based on the grain total output, unit yield, and sown area in Xinjiang from 1960 to 2023, as well as daily temperature and precipitation data from 52 meteorological stations in Xinjiang from 1960 to 2021, this study analyzes the spatial-temporal variations of extreme climates and their relationship with grain production using methods such as Sen's slope estimation, meteorological production decomposition, and grey relational analysis. The results indicate that, Xinjiang is experiencing a significant trend of warming and becoming wetter. Extreme temperature indices exhibit an upward trend in most regions, whereas the increase in extreme precipitation is primarily concentrated in the mountainous areas and their surrounding regions in the western and northern parts. From 1960 to 2023, there was an obvious linear growth trend in the trending sown area, trending unit yield, and trending total output in Xinjiang. Meanwhile, the meteorological sown area, meteorological unit yield, and meteorological total output showed a fluctuating upward trend with increasing volatility over time. Over the past 64 years, the climate normal harvest year have been the predominant type. Among all the indicators affecting grain total production, the extreme temperature index has a particularly significant impact, with variables such as Maximum Value of Daily Maximum Temperature (TXx) are crucial for increasing and stabilizing grain production. At the same time, extreme precipitation also plays an important role in grain meteorological production, with variables such as Continuous Wet Days (CWD) serving as key factors in assessing meteorological risks. The trends in extreme climate indices in Xinjiang are pronounced, and there is a relatively strong correlation between these indices and grain production. However, current climate adaptation policies are not keeping pace with climate change, and there is an urgent need to implement corresponding adaptation measures to address future challenges.