Eliminating climate change mitigation trade-offs in African rangelands

Climate change is intensifying precipitation variability in southern African rangelands, driving dynamics that pastoral systems are unprepared to cope with. Simultaneously, developments in weather forecast accuracy and access may enable pastoralists to effectively adapt to these conditions. Here, we use a spatial agent-based model to study the benefits of weather forecasting for adaptive rangeland management with and without concurrent risk-smoothing interventions. Given empirical and projected conditions across seven southern African countries, we show that: 1) precipitation variability can reduce average economic wellbeing and worsen inequality amongst pastoralists; 2) if paired with the adaptive use of weather forecasting, risk smoothing interventions such as the provision of supplemental fodder can buffer these effects without overstocking; and 3) risk smoothing is critical for scaling adaptive management practices. Overall, we show how pairing forecasts and risk smoothing can reduce trade-offs inherent to each intervention alone, supporting climate change adaptation at scale.