Projections of climate change impacts on crop production in Quebec

There is a global consensus that climate change will have strong impacts on agricultural production globally. In Quebec, little is known about its future impacts on maple syrup, barley and soybean production. The existing studies are either global or national and provide limited insights on the local impacts at the provincial and regional scale in Quebec. This study examines the projected impacts of climate change on these crops in Quebec and in some selected regions within the province. The study used time series data on maple syrup, barley and soybean annual production for the period 1971 to 2023 collected from Statistic Canada. Climatic data on annual and seasonal mean temperatures and precipitations were culled from Ouranos. Multiple linear regression approach was used to develop the empirical statistical models and then employed for the predictions by the year 2100 under moderate (SSP2-4.5) and high (SSP3-7) scenarios. We found that Quebec’s barley, soybean and maple syrup production are expected to increase. However, this trend differs regionally, in Centre du Québec, barley and soybean production are expected to decline. Meanwhile, in Montérégie, barley production is expected to increase and soybean would decline. Based on current commodity value, this is a gain of 16.2 to 18.1 million CAD for barley, 201.5 to 460.8 million CAD for soybean and a loss of 1.5 million CAD for maple syrup under the SSP2-4.5 scenario. This study helps us to understand the potential impacts of future climate change on crop production in Quebec and provide important insights into the food security and sustainable development for Canada.