A Systems Thinking Framework for India’s Building Energy Transition

The building sector is a critical yet complex frontier for decarbonization, where siloed policies often trigger unintended consequences like workforce shortages and performance gaps. This study employs a systems-thinking approach to model the feedback loops between policy enforcement, workforce skills, and technological adoption in the building energy value chain. Through a systematic literature review, a conceptual System Dynamics model was developed, later quantified for the Indian context. The analysis reveals that system behavior is an emergent property of interacting reinforcing and balancing loops. Key findings show that isolated policies are suboptimal, as delays in workforce development and the resulting performance gap are primary sources of policy resistance. In contrast, an integrated policy package simultaneously addressing skills, finance, and supply chains unlocks exponential growth, achieving over 300% greater technology adoption by 2044 compared to business-as-usual. The study concludes that high-leverage interventions require coordinated, simultaneous action across all subsystems. This research provides a holistic, evidence-based framework for policymakers to design robust interventions that work with, rather than against, the system's dynamics, enabling a faster and more sustainable building energy transition.