Assessing Synergies and Tradeoffs from Integrated Policy Interventions for Clean Energy Transition in Uganda Using System Dynamics Approach

Uganda’s heavy reliance on traditional bioenergy, mainly firewood and charcoal, has led to rapid forest degradation and significant health and labor burdens, especially for women and children. However, the long-term, system-wide impacts of clean energy interventions advanced to address those challenges remain insufficiently understood. This study developed and applied a system dynamics (SD) model, using nationally calibrated time-series data and stakeholder-informed parameters, to evaluate the effectiveness of clean cooking policy strategies through 2050. The model captures endogenous feedbacks within Uganda’s firewood and charcoal value chains and assesses the effects of three core interventions: household energy diversification, adoption of efficient charcoal kilns, and uptake of modern cookstoves. Five policy scenarios were simulated: Business as Usual (BAU), Efficient Charcoal Production (ECP), Efficient Cookstoves (EC), Fuel Substitution (FS), and a Comprehensive Transition (CT) combining all three interventions. Results show that under BAU, woody biomass harvest exceeds sustainable supply levels by the early 2030s. While individual interventions reduced harvest by an average of 55% by 2050, the CT scenario stands out with an 84% reduction and a 150% improvement in cost-efficiency relative to BAU. Notably, both CT and EC scenarios transition from net costs to net savings before 2050, driven by avoided health burdens, time savings, and carbon credit revenues. These findings underscore the nonlinear, synergistic benefits of integrated policy approaches and the importance of including indirect socio-economic costs in planning. The model offers transferable insights for other biomass-dependent economies seeking to design equitable, cost-effective clean energy transitions.