How does the Belt and Road Initiative Influence Solar Photovoltaic Exports from China to Sub-Saharan Africa?

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), through its “five-pronged” approach, offers opportunities for opening up trade among the member countries. Despite the potential benefits of the BRI in promoting renewable energy trade, Sub-Saharan Africa’s (SSA) share of China’s solar photovoltaic (PV) exports remains small, conflicting with the growing need for sustainable energy solutions. This study examines the impact of the BRI on the exportation of solar PV products from China to SSA. Using a dynamic DiD approach with solar PV export data from 2012 to 2022 for 37 SSA countries, we find that joining the BRI significantly increases solar PV exports, particularly for early joiners. Causal mediation analysis of both hard and soft BRI connectivity mechanisms using nonparametric bootstrapping reveals that financial coordination and trade connectivity are significant mediators of this increase; while policy coordination, people-to-people bonds and infrastructure connectivity indicate direct effects. The findings highlight the BRI’s immediate success in leveraging trade and financial tools to boost solar PV exports and suggest the need to further utilize opportunities from soft connectivity mechanisms and physical infrastructure for long-term gains.