How Do Green Industrial Policies Promote Green Economic Development?

Using the 2023 Green Industry Guidance Catalogue, this study identifies green-industry policy themes and, via text-mining, builds a province–year database for 30 Chinese provinces and municipalities from 2005–2023. Data Envelopment Analysis is applied to measure regional green economic development, and the impacts and mechanisms of green industrial policies are empirically tested. Results show that such policies significantly foster green economic development, especially in regions with stronger economic foundations or more favorable resource endowments. Mechanism analysis reveals two main channels: enhancing green technological innovation and promoting a greener industrial structure, with technological progress playing the dominant role rather than narrowing regional disparities. Among the three policy categories, green service policies and institutional support exert the strongest positive effects. The findings highlight the need to refine China’s green industrial policy system and account for policy heterogeneity to support high-quality and more coordinated green development across provinces.