Dietary shifts reshape land use and farm economics in Europe
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The scale of animal agriculture in the EU threatens climate, biodiversity, and public health. We show that transitioning to plant-rich diets, under scenarios of Moderate, Low, and Zero animal-sourced food (ASF) intake, would release 28-84 Mha of agricultural land in the EU+UK and free €12-39 billion year-1 of Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) subsidies as of 2020. Simultaneously, farm employment would decline by 8-58%, while unsubsidised farm profits would increase by 8% under Moderate ASF intake, decrease 3% under Low ASF, and fall 36% under Zero ASF. Most profits in animal agriculture depend on public support, indicating widespread economic vulnerability. However, impacts vary across regions: livestock-dominated loss-makers would see losses disappear, while livestock-dominated profit-makers would see profits eroded. These effects could be offset by repurposing CAP savings. To support a plant-rich, just food transition, spatially differentiated CAP reform is essential. We identify five distinct transition archetypes to guide such policy tailoring.