Food systems transformation would imply a radical revaluing of global agriculture

Food systems exert significant stress on planetary boundaries1–3 while healthy diets are currently unaffordable for billions worldwide4. These challenges are expected to continue under global population trends, projected to reach 9.6 billion by mid-century5. Food systems must therefore transform in pursuit of health and sustainability goals6–8. However, the scale and distribution of this transformation on agriculture is underexplored. Here we show that, by 2050, an EAT-Lancet style food systems transformation results in a fundamental restructuring of global agriculture, aspects of which break with historical trends. Scenario simulations using a multi-model ensemble of 10 global economic models show a 6% median decrease in agricultural land of 274Mha (+1 to -26%, +48 to -1257Mha) compared to 2020 levels. By 2050, agricultural production would be 2 to 32% (-0.2x109 to -3.7x109 tonnes) lower than business-as-usual projections, and economically, the value of this production shows a 26% median relative decline of $1.6tn in USD2020 (+8% to -58%, +$0.5tn to -$2.9tn USD2020) Within this, the value of livestock production would fall substantially (-$1tn to -$2.2tn, -49% to -83%). These results reinforce the need for a more active role for food policy and stakeholder dialogue to catalyse such a transformation and navigate the political economic consequences of its impacts.