Global hotspots of unprecedented tropical cyclone risk for targeted adaptation

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are projected to intensify and expand into new regions under climate change, exposing millions of people with little or no prior experience of such hazards. These “unprecedented” events—occurring in historically unaffected areas or exceeding existing adaptive capacity—pose unique challenges for adaptation. Here we present the first global, high‑resolution risk assessment that integrates projected changes in TC intensity and frequency, population exposure, and local-to‑national adaptive capacity. We classify 26,570 coastal subnational regions into hazard–capacity types, revealing two categories of particular concern: transitional‑increase regions, where TCs are projected to become more intense or frequent, and neoclimatic regions, where TCs may occur for the first time. By 2050, under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, 32% of the global coastal population exposed to TCs is projected to reside in regions transitioning from minor to major TCs, with the majority projected to live in Asia (25%). Meanwhile, the 4% of coastal population is projected to live in neoclimatic regions, including 1% in areas projected to experience unprecedented major TCs, mostly in Asia, Africa, Oceania, and American continent. We link these classifications to tailored adaptation pathways, from incremental upgrades to transformative interventions, offering a framework to prioritize adaptation investments and close emerging cyclone adaptation gaps.