Exposure of global agricultural lands to extreme weather using CMIP6 projections of future climate

As climate change intensifies, extreme weather is becoming a major threat to global food security. Yet we still lack a good understanding of how these extremes will be distributed across the world’s agricultural lands—particularly across small versus large crop and pasturelands. In this study, we assess the exposure of global agricultural lands to extreme weather in a warming world, focusing on small and large crop and pasturelands. In a world that is 2°C warmer than today, 25% (11 million hectares, Mha) of present-day agricultural lands will face over two months of extreme heat, up from 16% today (7 Mha), and another ~2% (5 Mha) will be exposed to a combination of two or more extremes, up from 10% (4 Mha). The total area exposed to prolonged dry conditions and extreme precipitation will remain unchanged (less than 1% or 5 Mha, with increases in some regions balanced by decreases elsewhere), while ~2% less area (2 Mha), down from 7% (3 Mha), will experience a month of frost. Future exposure to extreme weather varies by land use type. Pasture lands will experience prolonged exposure to heat stress, whereas croplands will be exposed to higher excessive rains and heat stress combined. Spatial correlations between farm size and geography indicate potential differences in exposure. Exposure to extreme precipitation and heat stress is highest in small (1-2 ha) and medium (2-4 ha) crop and pastureland, respectively. These findings offer a preliminary global assessment of how exposure to extreme weather varies by farm size and land use, underscoring the need for tailored adaptation strategies to safeguard food security in a warming world.