Research on the Spatiotemporal Evolution and Driving Factors of the Coordinated Development of the Rural Economy–Ecology– Society–Innovation System in Guangdong Province

The implementation of China’s “dual-carbon” strategy and the Rural Revitalization Strategy has placed rural development in Guangdong Province under multiple and overlapping pressures, including economic upgrading, ecological constraints, social equity, and innovation. However, uneven regional growth, ecological vulnerabilities, and insufficient innovation capacity remain persistent challenges.This study examines 21 prefecture-level cities in Guangdong from 2017 to 2023. The entropy weight method is applied to evaluate the development levels of the rural economy, ecology, society, and innovation subsystems. A coupling coordination degree model is then used to assess the spatiotemporal trajectory of coordinated development, while a geographic detector identifies dominant driving forces and interactive effects.The findings show that the provincial rural coordination index rose steadily from 0.356 to 0.380, displaying a gradient diffusion pattern—high in the Pearl River Delta and low in peripheral regions. Guangzhou and Shenzhen achieved primary coordination, whereas Shanwei and Yunfu remained in mild to moderate imbalance. Among the influencing factors, science and technology expenditure, patent authorizations, and social security coverage (Q > 0.74) emerged as the strongest drivers. Interaction analysis further reveals that the joint effects of innovation, social security, and ecological responses generate the most significant nonlinear enhancement of coordination.These results provide direct implications for Guangdong’s rural governance, suggesting that policies linking innovation, social security, and ecology can foster more balanced development. The study also offers a replicable framework for other regions seeking integrated rural transformation.