Assessment of shelterbelt efficiency under changing wind regimes: CFD Modeling and spatial analysis

Agroforestry-based land reclamation is a crucial tool for protecting soils from wind erosion (deflation) in many agricultural regions worldwide. However, prolonged exposure to adverse environmental factors has led to a decline in their effectiveness and a change in the operating conditions for which they were originally established. The aim of this study is to provide a quantitative assessment of the reduction in the wind-protective function of shelterbelts established in the 20th century under changing climatic conditions, using southern Russia as a case study.The research was conducted within a typical plowed agro-landscape of the Shchepkinskoe rural settlement, Aksay district, Rostov region, which is prone to deflation. To analyze the dynamics of wind speed and direction, meteorological data from the “Rostov-on-Don” weather station were used. Spatial analysis of shelterbelts (SB) was performed using satellite imagery from Landsat 8. The wind-protective efficiency of SBs was evaluated with the specialized software package for CFD modeling, while data processing and visualization were carried out in Python using the Pandas, NumPy, Matplotlib, and Seaborn libraries. Exploratory data analysis (EDA), regression analysis, and weighted average evaluation were applied as part of a systemic approach to achieving the research objective.It was established that over the entire period of SB existence (from establishment to the present), the average wind speed increased by 2.6 m/s, while the number of days with strong winds (≥ 10 m/s) rose by a factor of 1.5. A significant change in the wind rose was detected, expressed in the increase of mixed wind directions up to 53.4% and a decrease in prevailing easterly winds by 11.6%. CFD-based simulation demonstrated that when the wind direction deviates by 27°–45°, the area of deflation-prone land increases to 43.32%. Weighted average evaluation of wind-protective efficiency revealed a decline of 16–24% due to climate change.Considering the obtained results, under conditions of climate change and increasing aridization, there is a critical need to adapt existing shelterbelt systems to maintain their protective function.