Flood and Water Logging Risk Assessment of Jashore District Leveraging the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) Through a Spatial Analysis Approach

The Jashore district in Bangladesh is facing persistent problems of flooding and landslides due to heavy rainfall, inadequate drainage systems and poor management of its water table. These problems are undermining livelihoods, undermining infrastructure and threatening the sustainability of the region's economy. The study introduces an innovative methodology for assessing the risks of deforestation. A comprehensive analysis of ten key factors - topographic wetness index (13.8), elevation (12.1), slope (9.9), land use and area (6.6), normalized difference vegetation index (5.3) - has helped to create a detailed spatial risk map. The findings classify the district as follows: very low (364.20 km), low (1397.63 km 2), medium (273.02 km ² ) and high (83.68 km). The high and very high risk areas, including the Kapalia area between Manirampur and Avoynagar, and Keshabpur Upazila, are characterized by low altitude, heavy rainfall, proximity to rivers and poor drainage. Conversely, low-risk areas such as the Chowgacha and Jhikargacha uplands have higher altitudes and more pronounced slopes. The analysis highlights the critical role of the topographical moisture index (TWI), with higher TWIs associated with less water scarcity, whereas elevation is the most important factor for water scarcity. The main cause of the flooding is the intensity of rainfall, compounded by poor drainage and poor management of waterways. Integrating AHP and GIS not only improves analytical accuracy, but also provides a visually intuitive and actionable tool for decision-makers. The study provides a visionary framework for tackling the root causes of flooding, promoting sustainable water management and driving forward climate change. The findings are a critical source for developing strategic interventions to mitigate the risks of flashpoint.