Climate Change Impacts on High-Speed Rail Operations: Vulnerability Analysis and Adaptation Strategies

This study evaluates the impacts of climate change on high-speed rail operations in South Korea, focusing on the Gyeongbu and Honam High-Speed Lines. Rail temperature was simulated for the period 2021–2100 using climate projections from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), and thresholds for abnormal operation (≥ 55°C) and service suspension (≥ 64°C) were applied. Results indicate a substantial increase in both abnormal operation days and suspension days under high-emission scenarios (SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5), with the Gyeongbu5 (Gimcheongumi–Dongdaegu) and Gyeongbu6 (Dongdaegu–Gyeongju) sections identified as the most vulnerable. Furthermore, the effectiveness of mitigation measures, such as rail temperature–lowering technologies, was quantitatively assessed, showing partial but insufficient risk reduction. These findings underscore the urgency of integrating climate mitigation policies with targeted adaptation strategies and technological improvements to safeguard the stability, safety, and efficiency of rail operations under future climate conditions. The study also provides evidence-based insights that can inform national climate adaptation plans and long-term infrastructure resilience strategies.