Evaluation and Dynamic Evolution Analysis of Urban Infrastructure Resilience Based on the DPSIR Model

Urban infrastructure resilience is crucial for mitigating the impacts of escalating climate change and human-induced disturbances. This study proposes a comprehensive evaluation index system to assess urban infrastructure resilience and explore its spatial evolution patterns, grounded in the "Driving force-Pressure-State-Impact-Response" (DPSIR) model. Using panel data from 16 prefecture-level cities in Shandong Province,China during 2014–2023, we constructed an index system covering various aspects of infrastructure to characterize resilience levels at different stages when facing disturbances. The Dagum Gini coefficient and Markov chain were employed to analyze regional differences in resilience and their dynamic evolution characteristics. The results show that: (1) The comprehensive score of urban infrastructure resilience in Shandong Province fluctuated and increased year by year from 2014 to 2023, demonstrating a trend of "overall improvement with echelon differentiation." (2) Over the decade, inter-regional differences in urban infrastructure resilience contributed far more to the total differences than intra-regional differences and super-variable density. (3) The resilience level of urban infrastructure exhibits strong path dependence and high stability, with medium-high and high levels being more prone to stability. The evaluation model and results of this study provide effective recommendations for the construction of similar urban infrastructure in China.