Assessing Urban Development Patterns Using a System Dynamics Approach

Urban systems are increasingly challenged by the complex interplay of social, economic, environmental, and infrastructural dynamics. Traditional methods typically focus on isolated impacts, failing to adequately account for the interconnectedness of urban subsystems. This paper addresses this research gap by leveraging system dynamics as a robust modeling and simulation methodology for exploring urban developmental patterns and their long-term implications. The approach is contextualized within the sustainable development discourse, emphasizing systemic feedback relationships among transport, population, economy, and environment subsystems. We demonstrate the method's efficacy through an in-depth case study of Mandra, Greece, a city facing typical urban challenges such as congestion, economic stagnation, and environmental degradation. The developed simulation model establishes clear causal links among key variables, enabling scenario testing and long-term forecasting of policy impacts. Results from diverse scenarios illustrate how various urban development policies might affect system sustainability over extended periods. The model proves valuable for urban planners by simplifying complex urban dynamics into actionable insights, thus significantly enhancing informed decision-making. Ultimately, this study underscores the potential of system dynamics to bridge urban complexity with practical policymaking, offering an innovative analytical framework to guide cities toward sustainable futures.