Regional Trends and Macroeconomic Predictors of Raw Milk Production in Asia from 2000 to 2032

This study presents a comprehensive longitudinal analysis of raw milk production trends and forecasts across nine representative Asian countries - India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, China, Indonesia, Japan, Vietnam, Iran, and Türkiye - spanning the period 2000 to 2032. Employing multiple linear regression and exponential smoothing techniques, the research investigates the macro-level determinants of milk output, integrating economic, demographic, and environmental variables. The regression model identified livestock stock ( β = 0.193 , p < 0.001 ), agricultural land use ( β = 1.579e⁵, p = 0.00062 ), gross domestic product (GDP) ( β = 499.6, p < 0.001 ), and temperature ( β₁ = 3.375e⁶; β₂ = −7.985e⁴ ) as statistically significant predictors, collectively explaining 33% of the variance in production (R-Squared (R²) = 0.33). Forecasting results using exponential smoothing demonstrated high predictive accuracy (e.g., Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) = 0.37% for Pakistan, 2.88% for India), enabling reliable projections of species-specific milk output. Projections indicate continued expansion in South Asia - particularly for cattle and buffalo milk - driven by demographic growth and institutional support, while East Asia reveals divergent paths, with China showing modest growth and Japan facing prolonged decline. Emerging markets in Southeast Asia, notably Vietnam and Indonesia, exhibit promising but variable trends. The findings offer region-wide implications for evidence-based policy development, resource allocation, and the design of climate-resilient, economically viable dairy strategies across heterogeneous production systems in Asia.