Drivers of South Africa’s Apple Export Performance and Competitiveness in High-Value European Markets

This study employs an augmented gravity model of trade, estimated with fixed effects panel techniques, to evaluate the key macroeconomic and structural drivers of South Africa’s apple export performance and competitiveness. It focuses on Germany, the Netherlands, France, Sweden, and Ireland, over the period 2005 to 2024. Positioned within the theme "Market Concentration and Competition Law in Agriculture" and aligned with the sub-theme on "Industry Structure, Agricultural Value Chains and Agribusiness," this paper contributes to contemporary debates on how emerging market exporters engage with high-standard international value chains. Using panel cointegration and fixed-effects regression techniques, the analysis confirms a statistically significant and unexpected relationship: distance positively influences South Africa’s apple exports, indicating the country’s logistics maturity, post-harvest infrastructure, and counter-seasonal market advantage. The model explains 59% of the variation in export flows (R² = 0.59), validating the dominance of structural trade enablers over geographic proximity. While tariffs were statistically insignificant, the study highlights the critical role of non-tariff measures (NTMs) and institutional compliance in driving export success. Long-run cointegration with the GDP and exchange rates of importing countries underscores the importance of macroeconomic forecasting. These findings offer actionable insights for policymakers aiming to enhance South Africa’s horticultural trade strategy under evolving EU regulatory frameworks, including EU green deal realignments and sustainability-driven NTMs. The study advances scholarly understanding of competitiveness in global agri-food value chains and informs targeted trade policy design.