Protectionism in critical minerals supply chains exacerbates inequalities in the global energy transition

The global energy transition relies on critical minerals like lithium, cobalt, and rare earth elements, yet national policy interventions disrupt their supply chains, amplifying market instability and global inequalities. We develop an integrated framework combining synthetic control methods and multi-regional input-output models to analyze 115 policy episodes from 2008 to 2023, assessing their impact on 16 critical metals. Our findings show that export controls, resource nationalism, and industrial subsidies drive price deviations exceeding 30% and increase market risk by 140% since 2020. These interventions disproportionately burden low- and middle-income countries, with welfare losses 2.3 times their GDP, compared to milder impacts in industrialized nations. This shift from market-driven to state-led resource governance undermines the equitable decarbonization needed for net-zero goals. We advocate for coordinated international mechanisms to stabilize supply chains and ensure a just energy transition, highlighting the urgent need to mitigate policy-induced volatility.