Climate-driven losses in soybean suitability threaten iron and zinc supply for millions in the Global South

Recent studies have documented the growing impact of climate change on global agriculture. Yet, the nutritional impacts of these changes remain largely overlooked, especially for key crops like soybeans, one of the world’s richest plant sources of iron and zinc, nutrients for which over a billion people remain at risk of deficiency. Here, using recent advances in spatial modeling and nutrient mapping, we present the first global assessment showing that projected climate-driven losses in soybean suitability by 2050 will sharply reduce iron and zinc supply for millions living in sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia, regions where deficiencies are already widespread. In Southern Africa alone, lost soybean-derived nutrients are equivalent to the annual requirements of over 6 million (iron) and 4 million (zinc) people. Meanwhile, gains accrue almost entirely in higher-income temperate regions with often lower burdens of deficiencies. These findings spotlight a new frontier in climate adaptation: agricultural initiatives must adopt a nutrition lens, and global nutrition strategies must integrate climate foresight. Without these shifts, policies risk worsening hidden hunger and deepening social and health disparities, leaving the world’s most vulnerable even further behind.