Trends in Australian Fertility: Evidence from the Australian Labour Force Survey

This study introduces a novel approach to monitoring fertility trends in Australia using the Australian Labour Force Survey (LFS) as an alternative data source. The LFS offers earlier insights into fertility patterns—up to 16 months ahead of birth registration statistics—and enables analysis by socio-demographic characteristics. Findings indicate that after more than a decade of decline, Australia's total fertility rate appears to have stabilized.The data reveal sharp differences in fertility trends by partnership status and education. Fertility among unpartnered women has halved since 2008, while the decline among partnered women has been comparatively modest. Despite women now spending a greater share of their reproductive years unpartnered, the expected number of births occurring while unpartnered has dropped from approximately 0.2 in 2014 to 0.1 in 2024. Educational differences have also widened: women without post-school qualifications now exhibit lower fertility than their tertiary-educated counterparts—a reversal of past patterns. These findings underscore the growing role of partnership dynamics and educational attainment in shaping contemporary fertility trends.