Rural poverty and fertility transitions in Sub-Saharan Africa: Understanding the link and pathways to stability

Fertility remains persistently high in many parts of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), particularly in rural areas where poverty is widespread and institutional support is limited. This study investigates the underexplored role of rural poverty in shaping fertility dynamics, focusing on both the direct effect of poverty on fertility and the distributional heterogeneity of this relationship across fertility levels. Using balanced panel data from 15 SSA countries covering the period 2010 to 2024, we employ the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimator, two-step System Generalized Method of Moments (GMM), and the Method of Moments Quantile Regression (MMQR) to systematically examine how rural poverty influences fertility decisions. Our results first reveal that rural poverty significantly associated with higher fertility in both the short and long term, with the effect becoming more pronounced in high-fertility contexts. Second, female labor participation and human development mitigate fertility, whereas unemployment and limited healthcare access reinforce it. Finally, the MMQR results confirm that the influence of rural poverty intensifies at higher levels of fertility, suggesting a deepening poverty–fertility relationship in the most vulnerable rural populations. These findings call for multifaceted interventions, including rural social protection programs, integrated family planning services, and gender-focused education and employment policies to disrupt the intergenerational cycle of poverty and high fertility in SSA.