Carbon Quota Trading-Driven Low-Carbon Innovation in Manufacturing: Synergy and Pathway Optimization for Technology R&D-Policy Incentive Coordination

methods unit product subsidies and technology cost subsidies. The results indicate that the interaction between carbon price fluctuations and consumer green preferences forms a specific optimal transition path, where firms' preferences for government subsidy methods depend on market size thresholds and policy incentive intensity boundaries: when the market size exceeds a specific threshold and technology cost subsidies are significant, technology subsidies can more effectively promote green technology upgrades; conversely, under large market sizes and specific subsidy conditions, unit product subsidies are more advantageous for manufacturers to maximize profits. To validate the applicability of the theoretical model, the study conducted an empirical test using the practical case of Haier Group. The research provides a theoretical basis for governments to formulate differentiated subsidy policies and guide manufacturers toward green transformation, while also offering practical guidance for manufacturers to optimize technical investments and operational decisions under carbon quota trading policies.