A Foresight Study on the Geopolitical Vulnerabilities of the Rare Earth Supply Chain in Securing Green Hydrogen

The global shift toward green hydrogen is increasingly constrained by rare earth element (REE) supply vulnerabilities. This study investigates how REE price volatility, driven by geopolitical shocks, impacts the scalability and cost-effectiveness of hydrogen infrastructure. Using a hybrid methodology—integrating Artificial Neural Network (ANN) forecasting with geopolitical scenario analysis—we model price behavior for neodymium, dysprosium, and terbium. The ANN model outperforms ARIMA and XGBoost, particularly during high-volatility periods such as Myanmar’s mining bans and Red Sea disruptions. Simulation results show that REE price surges can elevate the Levelized Cost of Hydrogen (LCOH) by up to 9%, especially in PEM electrolyzer systems. These findings reveal a critical paradox: green hydrogen may replace fossil fuel dependency with new dependencies on geopolitically exposed minerals. Policy recommendations include integrating REE risk dashboards into hydrogen roadmaps, investing in regional refining capacity, and promoting circular economy initiatives. The study concludes that ensuring hydrogen resilience requires material sovereignty alongside energy sovereignty.