Development, Trade and Environmental Justice: Decoupling Economic Growth from Lead Mortality in Africa

Lead exposure remains a serious environmental health threat in Africa, especially for children. Amid economic growth, weak regulatory safeguards may exacerbate lead-related morbidity and mortality – the development paradox. This study investigates how socioeconomic development, infrastructure, and policy factors relate to premature deaths from lead exposure across African countries. We analyzed data for 52 African nations on premature deaths attributed to lead exposure (Global Burden of Disease 2021), alongside indicators including GDP, lead paint bans, public awareness (Google search index), vegetation cover (NDVI), import volume, and sanitation access. A multivariate log-linear regression assessed associations with lead-attributable mortality. Residual spatial autocorrelation is detected, and a spatial error model accounted for unobserved geographic effects. Guided by Environmental‑Justice and Pollution‑Haven theory, we test three propositions: (i) GDP–mortality coupling, (ii) trade‑mediated toxicity transfer, and (iii) infrastructure‑driven mitigation. The model finds that higher GDP was significantly associated with increased lead mortality (\(\:\beta\:=0.557,\:p<0.001\)), as was import volume (\(\:\beta\:=0.342,\:p=0.008\)). Improved sanitation correlated with lower mortality (\(\:\beta\:=-0.019,\) \(\:p<0.001\)). Public awareness showed a marginally significant protective effect (\(\:p=0.057\)). Lead paint regulation and vegetation cover were not significantly associated. The spatial error model improved fit and identified spatially correlated risks (\(\:\lambda\:\approx\:0.50,\:p<0.001\)). Our study for the first time suggests that in Africa, economic development without environmental safeguards may elevate lead exposure – a “lead exposure paradox.” Globalization facilitates hazardous imports (e.g., e-waste), compounding risks. Basic infrastructure like sanitation appears protective. These findings call for integrated industrial, trade and health policies aligned with Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 3, 8 and 12.